Erkmen Giray ASLIM

Erkmen Giray Aslim Murat C. Mungan, and Yijia Lu
Journal Article "Effective and Humane: A Two-Step Criminal Justice Reform,” Alabama Law Review, Forthcoming

Abstract

High recidivism rates in the United States are a well-known and disturbing problem. In this article, we explain how this problem can be mitigated in a cost-effective manner through reforms that make greater use of humane methods that help inmates rather than using more punitive measures.

We focus on Inmate Assistance Programs (IAPs) adopted by many states. Some of these programs provide inmates with valuable skill sets to utilize upon their release while others are geared towards treating mental health and substance use disorder problems. IAPs are likely to reduce recidivism by lowering ex-convicts’ need to resort to crime for income as well as reducing their likelihood of committing crimes impulsively under the influence of substances and mental disturbances. However, those who oppose IAPs quickly point out that they involve significant costs, and may reduce the general deterrence effects of criminal punishment. These objections are based on simple economic theories which suggest that IAPs can reduce general deterrence by providing inmates with benefits that partially off-set the expected costs of punishment. Thus, whether IAPs can be used in a cost-effective manner is an empirical question, whose answer depends on the trade-off between its recidivism reducing effects on the one hand, and its financial and potential general deterrence costs on the other.

Here, we provide the first empirical analysis of IAPs’ general deterrence effects after explaining why these effects are likely to be insignificant, or even positive, under a more complete economic theory which accounts for knowledge hurdles; discounting of future outcomes; impulsive behavior; loss aversion; and network effects. Our empirical analysis focuses on the impact of increased welfare benefits provided to certain inmates by states which chose to opt out of the 1996 federal ban under the Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Reconciliation Act (PRWORA). This act prevented drug offenders from using welfare benefits and food stamps. Using a difference-in-differences design, we find evidence supporting our theory, i.e., no statistically significant negative impact of states’ decisions to opt out of the PRWORA bans on the general deterrence of drug crimes.

Subsequently, we build on prior economic theories as well as our empirical observations to explain how the criminal justice reforms that use shorter imprisonment sentences and more frequent use of IAPs can reduce crimes as well as the costs of administering the criminal justice system. The cost savings from reducing sentences for repeat offenders can be used to finance IAPs without significantly affecting deterrence due to the ineffectiveness of lengthy imprisonment sentences. Thus, our analysis suggests IAPs can, in fact, be used in a cost-effective manner to reduce crime, and are valuable and humane tools that policy makers ought to consider as alternatives to punitive measures.

JEL codes

K00, K14, K42

Keywords

Recidivism, rehabilitation, substance use disorder, mental health, crime, deterrence, imprisonment

Erkmen Giray Aslim
Journal Article "Public Health Insurance and Employment Transitions," Labour Economics, Volume 75, April 2022, 102126.

Abstract

This study explores the effect of public health insurance on employment transitions among adults without dependent children. Under the Affordable Care Act, many states expanded Medicaid eligibility to cover adults with incomes up to 138 percent of the federal poverty level. I exploit this eligibility cutoff in a difference-in-discontinuities design and find that the probability of part-time employment increases relative to full-time employment. These employment transitions are strongest among females, low-educated workers, and individuals aged 45-64. An exploration of potential mechanisms shows that employment transitions are due to personal (voluntary) reasons as opposed to economic (involuntary) reasons, suggesting that increases in part-time employment are through the labor supply channel.

JEL codes

C21, J21, J26, I10

Keywords

Affordable Care Act; health insurance; labor supply; difference-in-discontinuities

Erkmen Giray Aslim, Murat C. Mungan, Carlos I. Navarro, and Han Yu
Journal Article "The Effect of Public Health Insurance on Criminal Recidivism," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, 41: 45-91, 2022.

Abstract

The prevalence of mental health and substance abuse disorders is high among incarcerated individuals. Many ex-offenders reenter the community without receiving any specialized treatment and return to prison with existing behavioral health problems. We consider a Beckerian law enforcement theory to identify different sources through which access to health care may impact ex-offenders’ propensities to recidivate, and empirically estimate the effect of access to public health insurance on criminal recidivism. We exploit the plausibly exogenous variation in state decisions to expand Medicaid under the Affordable Care Act. Using administrative data on prison admission and release records from 2010 to 2016, we find that the expansions decrease recidivism for both violent and public order crimes. In addition, we find that the public coverage expansions substantially increase access to substance use disorder treatment. The effect is salient for individuals who are covered by Medicaid and referred to treatment by the criminal justice system. These findings are most consistent with the theory that increased access to health care reduces ex-offenders’ perceived non-monetary benefits from committing crimes.

JEL codes

I15, K42

Keywords

Medicaid, Recidivism, Affordable Care Act, Substance Use Disorder

Media Coverage

The Appeal

Erkmen Giray Aslim and Bilin Neyapti
Journal Article "Fiscal Decentralization, Political Heterogeneity and Welfare," Prague Economic Papers, 2022, 31(5):347-376

Abstract

This paper contributes to the literature on fiscal decentralization by presenting a formal model of the interaction between the central and local governments (CG and LGs, respectively) where LGs may diﬀer in their degree of political alignment with CG. The non-cooperative optimal behaviour of the agents reveals that optimal tax increases with the extent of fiscal decentralization (FD), political unison and spillovers across localities, while LGs' optimal tax collection eﬀort is negatively associated with all of these parameters. The first novel finding of our study is that both welfare peaks and income distribution are more equitable at a lower level of FD in the case of spillovers than in the case of no spillovers, which supports the decentralization theorem. The second novel finding is that both the amount of redistributable income and central government utility increase with the degree of political unison.

JEL codes

H71, H72

Keywords

Fiscal decentralization; fiscal eﬃciency; welfare

Erkmen Giray Aslim, Irina B. Panovska, and M. Anıl Taş
Journal Article “Macroeconomic Effects of Maternity Leave Legislation in Emerging Economies,” Economic Modelling, Volume 100, July 2021, 105497.

Abstract

This study evaluates the relationships between maternity leave duration, female and male labor force participation, and macroeconomic productivity in emerging countries. We build a comprehensive maternity leave data set for a panel of emerging countries at annual frequency. Our data set augments publicly available data on maternity leave with narrative evidence that identifies the exact dates when legislative changes to maternity leave policies were enacted and enforced. The higher annual data frequency allows us to study both the short-term and the intermediate-term effects of maternity leave duration. Maternity leave is associated with positive but limited effects on female labor force participation, but it is associated with significant increases in male labor force participation. There is some evidence that increases in maternity leave duration are associated with decreases in productivity in the short run, but there are no significant adverse effects at longer horizons. The results for emerging countries look substantially different when compared to the results for a panel of developed countries.

JEL codes

J11, J08, J16, E24

Keywords

labor force participation, female labor force participation, maternity leave

Erkmen Giray Aslim and Murat C. Mungan
Journal Article “Access to Substance Use Disorder Treatment During COVID-19: Implications from Reduced Local Jail Populations,” Journal of Substance Abuse Treatment, Volume 119, December 2020, 108147

Abstract

Many states have responded to the spread of COVID-19 by implementing policies which have led to a dramatic reduction in jail populations. We consider benefits associated with providing the population of individuals who would, but for these policies, be incarcerated with substance use disorder (SUD) treatment. We discuss problems that may prevent this population from receiving SUD treatment as well as policies which may mitigate these problems.

Keywords

Incarceration, health care, SUD, COVID

Erkmen Giray Aslim
Journal Article “The Relationship Between Health Insurance and Early Retirement: Evidence from the Affordable Care Act,” Eastern Economic Journal, January 2019, Volume 45, Issue 1, Pages 112-140.

Abstract

This paper investigates the effect of the Affordable Care Act's (ACA) Medicaid expansion on the retirement decision of low-educated adults aged 55-64. Using data from the American Community Survey, I employ a difference-in-differences strategy that exploits the timing and expansion decisions of states for adults without dependent children ("childless adults"). I find that the expansions increase Medicaid enrollment for both men and women. The estimates also suggest that the expansions and Medicaid enrollment result in women retiring early, whereas there is no significant change in the retirement behavior of men. These findings imply that the effect of health insurance on women's retirement decisions may depend on men's labor market responses to health insurance.

JEL codes

I18, J18, J26

Keywords

Medicaid, Retirement, Affordable Care Act, Job lock

Erkmen Giray Aslim and Bilin Neyapti
Journal Article “Optimal Fiscal Decentralization: Redistribution and Welfare Implications,” Economic Modelling, February 2017, Volume 61, Pages 224–234.

Abstract

The literature has been inconclusive regarding the welfare effects of fiscal decentralization (FD), defined here as the extent to which local governments collect and spend local tax revenues. We present an original model to investigate formally the distributional and welfare implications of FD. In contrast to the standard approach that compares the implications of full FD with that of centralization, we consider that the central government chooses the level of FD to maximize welfare in a heterogeneous country. Noncooperatively, local governments choose their tax collection effort to maximize local utility. We show that an increase in the tax rate leads optimal FD to increase so as to compensate for the welfare loss from decreasing optimal local tax effort. Hence, welfare and income distribution improve in FD at its intermediate, rather than extreme, levels. We coin this result as the decentralization-Laffer curve. As regional spillovers increase, FD is less desirable as it deteriorates welfare and income distribution. This finding provides a novel support for the decentralization theorem and contributes to the fiscal policy debate.

JEL codes
E62; H77

Keywords
Fiscal decentralization; Welfare; Fiscal efficiency; Income distribution